You're a tax lawyer advising a client about a tax matter and don't know whether a particular tax deduction -- one that would save her $80,000 -- is allowable (it's a judgement call that involves no ethical issue). If she takes the deduction, she'll be audited with probability 75% (she's in a group that's often audited for such deductions). If she'd audited, the odds that the deduction will be found to be allowable are 50%. If she's audited and the deduction is disallowed, she won't obtain the $80,000 benefit, and she'll have to pay a penalty of $20,000. Should you advise her to claim the deduction?